Predicting a full stat line for Mac Jones heading into the 2022 season – Musket Fire | Hot Mobile Press

Mac Jones was by far the best rookie quarterback in the league in 2021. What numbers can he reasonably come up with in the 2022 season?

Mac Jones came into a very good situation for the 2021 season. After beating Cam Newton in the offseason, the franchise effectively handed him the keys, and Jones’ era is firmly underway.

His 2021 season was nothing short of excellent. Sure, he didn’t blow up the stat sheet, but virtually no rookie quarterback does. Completing over 67% of his passes and winning 10 games would be a remarkable season for a lot of seasoned franchise signal callers.

Now in their sophomore year, the Patriots are certainly looking to Mac Jones to make the leap to a more relevant tier. He maybe finished the season somewhere around QB20 overall and I don’t think it’s out of the question for Jones to sneak into that Matt Ryan/Ryan Tannehill/Kirk Cousins ​​class of good to very good.

Jones has all the tools — he’s smart, a workaholic, has an arm strong enough and enough agility to “make it” as a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

I don’t have a specific formula for this, but I want to go ahead and try to predict Mac Jones’ entire stat line for 2022, barring team wins and losses.

To start with, I want to look at the leap as a sophomore that some younger quarterbacks have made.

To keep it simple I do it like this.

From year one to year two, Joe Burrow’s touchdown percentage went from 3.2% to 6.5%.

From year one to year two, Kyler Murray’s touchdown percentage went from 3.7% to 4.7%.

Touchdown percentage stats are from Pro Football Reference. The percentage indicates the number of overtake attempts that result in touchdowns.

Let’s add one more. From year one to year two, Justin Herbert’s touchdown percentage went from 5.2% to 5.7%.

Mac Jones had a 4.2% touchdown percentage in 2022.

Joe Burrow’s touchdown percentage increased by 3.3% from year one to year two, Kyler Murray’s by 1.0% and Justin Herbert’s by 0.5%.

So if we average these three numbers, we get 1.6%. A 1.6% increase would take Mac Jones’ touchdown percentage from 4.2% to 5.8% in 2022.

Given that the team will play on a similar offense despite the departure of Josh McDaniels, and given that the offense is mostly identical from year one to year two, I don’t expect the Patriots’ offense to deviate from what they did have last year.

So we could realistically keep its 67.6% completion rate where it is in 2022.

Just as we calculated the touchdown rate percentage, we would also calculate the interception rate. Using the same three quarterbacks, Burrow, Murray and Herbert, we would get a 0.67% increase.

This means that Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert’s interception rates increased by an average of 0.67% from year one to year two.

If we simply add that to the Mac Jones 2021 interception rate of 2.5%, we get 3.2%.

In passing yards, Mac Jones passes have gained an average of 10.8 yards in 2021.

Again, for the passing yards prediction, we can use the same method we used to find his new interception rate and touchdown rate.

Joe Burrow’s yards per completion jumped 2.4 yards from year one to year two, Kyler Murray’s yards per completion actually decreased 0.1 yards, and Justin Herbert’s yards per completion jumped 0.4 yards from year one to year two.

That’s an average jump of 0.9 yards per degree from freshman to sophomore.

Mac Jones gained 10.8 yards per completion in the first year, so adding 0.9 gives new yards per completion of 11.7 yards.

Ok, so now we can figure out the actual statistical predictions.

Mac Jones predicted a 5.8% touchdown percentage, considering the same attempts from 521 he had in 2021 would amount to 30.21, or 30 touchdown passes.

The same method for interceptions would be 16.67 or 17 interceptions.

Passing yards are calculated based on his completions. If he has the same degrees in 2022, he would have 4,118 yards.

Combined, we would estimate Mac Jones completing 67.6% of his passes for 30 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions and 4,118 yards.

The only problem I have with this projection is the interceptions. I don’t think Mac Jones will throw 17 interceptions. In fact, I’d bet his interception total is somewhere between 10 and 12.

Mac Jones showed great composure and decision making in 2021. It’s a safe bet to think Jones will take a leap in 2022.

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