Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. And that’s just over 5% for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
First thing this morning, it looked like mortgage rates could remain stable or nearly stable today. However, yesterday and last Friday, mortgage rates started to rise, only to reverse and fall later in the day. When I warn daily that prices sometimes change direction as the hours go by, I mean it.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventional 30 years fixed||5.13%||5.164%||-0.1%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||4,583%||4,635%||+0.01%|
|Conventional 20 years fixed||4,991%||5,044%||-0.02%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||4,728%||4.83%||Unchanged|
|30 year solid FHA||5,431%||6.277%||-0.03%|
|15 year solid FHA||4,719%||5.198%||-0.1%|
|30 years solid VA||5.197%||5,423%||+0.4%|
|15 years solid VA||4,857%||5.223%||-0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Don’t start on a day when mortgage rates seem to be falling. My recommendations (below) are intended to make longer-term suggestions for the general direction of these interest rates. So they don’t change daily to reflect volatile sentiments in volatile markets.
Markets, including those that drive mortgage rates, are in a state of heightened uncertainty. So there is an increased risk that my predictions and recommendations could turn out to be wrong.
Nonetheless, investor sentiment and the tide of economic data seem to have turned to the point that there is now hope of a sustained fall in mortgage rates, at least for a while. Just be alert and ready to lock your rate if they hit back.
So my personal rate lock recommendations are now:
- LOCK OUT when it closes 7 days
- LOCK OUT when it closes fifteen days
- HOVER when it closes 30 days
- HOVER when it closes 45 days
- HOVER when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:
- That Yield on 10-year treasury bills decreased from 2.63% to 2.62%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yields
- Major Stock Indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage interest.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- oil prices rose to $94.58 from $93.95 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- gold Prices barely moved: up to $1,797 from $1,788 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It’s generally better for interest rates when gold goes up and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — increased from 39 to 40 from 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” Investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and into stocks, while “anxious” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what was going to happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable or close to stable today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it’s troubled. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
- Only “premium” borrowers (with great credit, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in the ads
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – although they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases.
There’s a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
There was good news for mortgage rates in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (paywall):
US manufacturing growth in July was the weakest in two years, but inflationary pressures showed signs of cooling as commodity prices eased, according to purchasing manager surveys released on Monday.
Falling orders might not be good news for most. But they are a sign of a shrinking economy. And regular readers know that recession fears usually lead to lower mortgage rates.
Signs of cooling in inflationary pressures also had a positive impact on mortgage rates. High inflation tends to push these rates higher, as we saw all too clearly in the first half of this year.
However, it is still too early to start popping the champagne corks. High inflation may not be over yet and remains hot in official data. And there’s a good chance of a rebound in the fall as a looming winter focuses the northern hemisphere’s attention on oil and natural gas shortages.
Meanwhile, behind some bad data, the economy is not doing as badly as many think. We’ll find out how that holds up when July jobs numbers are released on Friday.
All of this means that the recovery in mortgage rates over the past few days is fragile. Yes, there is reason for hope. But there is very little certainty.
Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background information.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low has been hit 16 times this year.
The most recent weekly record low was on Jan. 7, 2021, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Rates then continued to tumble and moved little for the next eight or nine months. But they began to rise noticeably in September. Unfortunately, they’ve mostly been skyrocketing since early 2022, despite May and June being friendlier months.
Freddies July 28th Report puts the same weekly average for traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 5.3% (with 0.8 fees and points), Low from 5.54% of the previous week.
Note that Freddie expects you to purchase rebate points (‘with 0.8 fees and points’) upon completion, which will earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do this, your fare would be closer to what we and others offer.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The latest forecasts all came out around July 21st.
Of course, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual. And her previous record for accuracy wasn’t very impressive.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage interest methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you’ll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for the products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policies or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent companies or affiliates.